Quaras (Winner) – Told us about an interesting addon called Bunnyhunter.

“The app lets you track “progress” toward getting a better chance of your drop because it lets you know how many whelp carriers you have killed. If you kill 150 mobs, it lets you know you have approximately a 15% chance “so far” of getting the whelp.

This shows a real fallacy in the RNG analysis which is that successive kills actually increase your chance of getting a rare drop. Despite the multiple attempts, you have the same chance of getting the drop on your first kill as you do on your 999th kill which is 1/1000.”

While it’s really just a record keeping addon it has definite potential for people to misinterpret the outputs and how RNG works. This was exactly the kind of thing I was looking for! Send me an email through the contact me option and I’ll send the code your way :)

Xellen – I thought this one was great, a perfect example of an RNGTard!

“People in dalaran sometimes make me think everyone needs to take basic statistics. I was talking to some random dk in dalaran who was riding Barons mount. I asked him how many runs it took and he said 57. I proceeded to call him lucky since I’m up to 264 with no drop, and I was exalted with the runeblade (was my first epic and I got it on my birthday, good old rng) back in classic.

His reply was thats impossible because after 100 runs you’re guarenteed to see a 1% drop. I spent 15 minutes trying to explain thats not how statistics works before giving up and just assuming that some people are beyond help.”

Descar – A classic example of superstition when prospecting titanium. I loved this one!

‘The most epics I have gotten off of 1 stack is 4, 1 stack of 5 gave me 2 and then I got 1 and 1. I usually do not prospect any ore unless I have 5+ stacks, I like doing 20 stacks at a time. But I will put them in my bags side by side, and start with one stack, lets say I get an epic off of the first prospect.

I leave that stack at 15 and move to another, lets say on that stack i get an epic after 3 prospects, I move on to the next stack leaving that one at 5, I continue to do that in that order, and If I get a stack that I got no epic out of, I have a full stack that I already got an epic out of. So I list it on the AH for 300-340g (which is still profit as I only paid 250) or I may prospect it in hopes of keeping it balanced.’

Huge thanks to everyone who submitted there examples. I would love to make these a regular/weekly post so if you have good examples of RNGTards similar to the ones above send them through.

I especially like examples where someone not only ‘doesnt get’ how RNG works but is aggressive about their lack of understanding! Extra points for those ones :p

So my ‘Guide to RNG’ is closer and closer to being in a presentable state. I’m getting quite excited about being able to finally share it with you guys.

Amongst the different topics I’m covering is ‘Common mistakes in dealing with RNG’ in which I discuss some of the more common errors people make with chance. This is stuff like “Well I’ve killed Baron Rivendare 20 times so far and no mount yet, so it should drop soon” and especially ANY QQ related to the ‘unfairness’ of RNG.

I’ve fondly termed these examples ‘RNGG’ and the folks in them ‘RNGTards’ (a play on the WoW economic term ‘freetards’). I need examples and stories of folks you’ve encountered who really don’t seem to understand or cope well with RNG.

I’ll even throw in a [Papa Hummel's Old-Fashioned Pet Biscuit] loot card for the best example!